BEIJING (Interfax-China) -- China will see domestic oil production peak as early as 2015 with an annual output of 190 million tonnes, while gas production is expected to peak sometime around 2035 with an annual output of 120 billion cubic metres, a leading energy scholar said at an industry forum held in Beijing over the weekend.
Such a prediction is accepted by most domestic scholars working with peak theory, Pang Xiongqi, the vice president of the China University of Petroleum, said at the 2nd International Forum on China's Energy Security. Peak theory maintains that globally, as well as on a country-by-country basis, there is a peak production rate for exhaustible resources such as oil and gas, and that after this peak has been reached output will start to decline and gradually near depletion.
According to Pang, Chinese scholars predict that global peak oil production will occur in 2027 with a peak annual output of 4.03 billion tonnes. Pang argued that theories predicting that the country's oil and gas output will decline after reaching a peak level in the near future have won significant support from the Chinese government, and that this is reflected in the government's recent push for the development of renewable energy.
To date, as many as 63 countries have already passed their peak oil production rate, Pang said.
If China retains its strong dependence on oil and gas resources after it passes such peaks, it will face many challenges, including oil and gas supply shortfalls, a rising dependency on imports as well as soaring consumption of environmentally polluting coal, Pang said.
However, a representative for the Ministry of Land and Resources, who wished to remain anonymous, disagreed with such predictions by saying that oil exploration in China is just entering a mature phase. The country currently has proven around 34% of its total reserves, and will have an annual discovery rate of more than 900 million tonnes by 2020. This rate will remain above 700 million tonnes after 2030, according to the official.
The official added that some 22 billion to 23 billion tonnes are likely be added to the country's proven reserve figures over the next 25 years.
In the meantime, gas exploration within China is still in the early stages, with only 14% of the country's total reserves already proven. As much as 400 billion to 500 billion cubic metres of gas are expected to be added to China's proven gas reserves annually between now and 2030.
Peak theory has been the subject of much dispute amongst international scholars, with some arguing that there is no such thing as an absolute peak production period. The chief criticism used is that the economic models used by peak theory cannot take into account future technological advances.
(c) Interfax-China 2007. For more intelligence on Chinese metals and mining, contact David Harman in Hong Kong at david.harman@interfax-news.com or (852) 2537-2262.
