SHANGHAI (Interfax-China) -- China is likely to be a net coal importer next year and see domestic coal prices rise by approximately 10%, a senior official with the China Development Research Center of Coal Industry said at a forum held in Beijing yesterday.
Guo Yuntao, the center's director, made the forecast at Coal Tech Asia 2007, based on the ongoing growth being seen in domestic coal demand and prices.
The forecast is in line with research contained within an International Energy Agency report published last month entitled "World Energy Outlook 2007 - China and India Insights".
The report said while 90% of China's coal resources are located in the country's north, coal demand is growing most significantly in southern coastal regions. When coupled with limited transportation capacity and rising prices, it is becoming increasingly cost effective for southern coastal coal consumers to import coal from overseas.
The report predicted that by 2010, China could be importing 50 million tonnes more coal than it exports, and that by 2030, some 35% of domestic coal demand will be met by imports. The report also said that thermal power stations are set to continue to be the country's major coal consumers over the next 20 years.
However, an official with the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), surnamed Geng, said that China's coal imports and exports will remain balanced in the long term, and that China will only be a net coal importer in the short term.
China became a net coal importer for the first time in the first half of this year, and then again in September when the country imported 620,000 tonnes more coal than it exported. For the nine-month period ending September, China imported 38.61 million tonnes of coal, up 47.6% year-on-year.
(c) Interfax-China 2007. For more intelligence on Chinese metals and mining, contact David Harman in Hong Kong at david.harman@interfax-news.com or (852) 2537-2262.
