ST. LOUIS (MineFund.com) -- The upward move in gold and silver prices through the half year left Minefund's London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) price forecaster rankings for those metals largely unchanged compared with the first quarter. It was a different situation for platinum and palladium though, both of which set new highs and lows for the year, widening the range and scattering the rankings in the process. That also enabled the cohort of LBMA platinum and palladium price forecasters to improve their accuracy to unprecedented levels.
Minefund ranks the LBMA forecasters in two ways. First, their individual metal forecasts are scored against actual results on a weighted basis - 40% of the score is derived from the average price; 25% each for the high and low scores; and 10% for the range between the high and low. Second, the results for each metal are scored on an equally weighted basis (25% each) to determine the overall rankings. Analysts who do not submit forecasts for each component and all four metals do suffer in the overall rankings. Where one company has more than one analyst covering different metals, their results are aggregated as combined company score.
Overall, the peer group of precious metal forecasters retain a remarkable record, boasting an accuracy rating of 87%, up from 73% at the end of the first quarter.
It remains to be seen whether the forecasters can retain this level of accuracy, but it is certainly a fine demonstration of their skills so far.
The gold rankings were unchanged for positions 1 though 7 as Jeffrey Rhodes held on to his first quarter lead. His gold forecasting accuracy ramped up to 93% and it was matched by a 92% score in silver which was good enough for third place.
Robin Bhar, of Calyon, was the only analyst to score top three rankings in three metals - second in silver with 91%; third in platinum with 97%; and second in palladium with another 97% rating. Bob Takai of Sumitomo was one of three analysts to score top three rankings in two metals. He held his second place in silver (96%) and stormed to second in platinum with a 98% rating; a gain of 16 positions.
HSBC's Jim Steele took the podium for silver, moving up two places in the quarter with a 96% accuracy rating. Tom Kendall, of Mitsubishi, took first in palladium with a 97% score.
Philip Aubertin from UBS gained the lead in platinum with a 98% score and a massive 16 place jump compared with the first quarter. Aubertin aslo improved 11 places in palladium. As a result, he was the most improved forecaster compared with Q1, rising 10 rankings to fourth place overall with a 90% score.
That was a literal swap with CPM Group's Jeff Christian. He tumbled 10 places from fourth last quarter, but still held a respectable 86% overall score.
The top three rankings overall and for each metal are shown below. To see detailed rankings and scores, please follow these links (updated weekly): Overall rankings | Gold price forecasts | Silver price forecasts | Platinum price forecasts | Palladium price forecasts