ST. LOUIS -- Precious metal analysts affiliated with the London Bullion Market Association (LBMA) were very accurate with their predictions for 2010, and they're super bullish for 2011. In fact they are so bullish that only one analyst believes any metal is threatened with a decline in average price through this year.
It is perhaps not surprising that silver and palladium are projected to record the greatest gains this year after analysts were caught short in 2010 with comparatively conservative forecasts. The peer group was a full 24% short of the actual average palladium price, and missed the high for the year by a whopping 45%. The miss on silver was 10% and 36% respectively.
In case you think that's enough to break trust, remember that relying on the forecasts for palladium and silver would have been very profitable with accuracy ratings of 75% for palladium and 87% for silver.
With equally weighted your investments in physical gold, silver, platinum, and palladium (click for charts and key ratios) you could expect an overall gain of 31% this year based on the LBMA peer group projections.
The two most bullish analysts also placed first and second in MineFund's 2010 competition, and have already entered the 2011 contest.
Leading the pack is Ross Norman, of storied bullion house Sharps Pixley. He is projecting a 23% increase in the average gold price, 83% for silver, 17% for platinum, and 79% for palladium. Norman also has the highest price for the year at $1,850/oz compared with the peer group average of $1,636/oz. Norman is also the most bullish for silver and palladium.
Last year's winner by a considerable margin, Fred Panizzutti of MKS Finance in Geneva, has settled on a 23% increase for gold, 80% for silver, 15% for platinum, 72% for palladium.
The least bullish by a considerable margin is Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Rossbach from Hereaus. He's only expecting an 8% gain for gold, 4% for silver, negative 1% for platinum, but reasonably bullish on palladium with a forecast 27% gain.
New participant Rohit Savant of CPM Group in New York is the next least bullish. His projected average gains for 2011 are gold 12%; silver 19%, platinum 6%; palladium 22%.
Most bullish among gold analysts is another new entrant, Edel Tully of UBS. She is banking on a 26% increase in the average price, which is fully $100 above the peer group forecast.
Platinum's biggest supporter is Glyn Stevens of INTL Commodities in Dubai. He is projecting a high for the year of $2,222/oz with an average price of $1,969/oz.
Very few analysts are expecting low prices for the year to descend below 2010 average prices.
Jeffrey Rhodes of INTL Commodities thinks gold could fall as low as $1,050/oz. Wrzesniok-Rossbach is fairly pessimistic on silver with a forecast low for the year of $19/oz. He is also project the lowest low for platinum of $1,450/oz. Robin Bhar of Credit Agricole thinks palladium could tumble as low as $500/oz.
2011 Forecast Summary
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