We have written many articles over the past couple of months whereby we compared historical price movements with current developments.
To show you a couple of them:
- Gold Headed To $5,000 per ounce?
- Silver 2006 vs Silver Today, Does It Look Familiar?
- USD-JPY: Let The Crash Begin
To make the comparisons easier, I developed an indicator for the Prorealtime Charting software, which allows me to "go back in time". The first article showed us that it's possible that gold could explode towards $5,000 over the next couple of months.
Let's have a look at the chart.
"Possible is everything", but what could cause gold to explode? Think about a total loss of confidence in currencies, and then we mean especially the US dollar.
As the second article showed us, the US dollar is headed for a crash against the JPY. We have already seen part of that crash, but then suddenly the Bank of Japan intervened and the price shot up. However, interventions don't work (except for the very short term) in our opinion, and right now, the USD/JPY is already back around its lows, despite the interventions.
So yes, gold could explode to $5,000. Especially if we would get a complete loss of confidence in the USD.
However, when you cross the street, you don't just look at one side if a big truck is coming.. The same counts for investing. One should always consider different views. Therefore, we compared the gold price Wednesday with the price movement of early 2006 to early 2008 in the chart below:
We all know what happened with gold in 2008. It dropped from as high as $1,033 to as low as $681, as all assets were liquidated in order to obtain cash. We were experiencing a really big credit crunch.
As gold and stocks sold off in 2008, gold stocks were hit even harder than gold. If the comparison of gold now vs. 2008 would hold, then what should we expect from gold stocks? Well, the chart below has the answer
What would happen to silver? Exactly. The same as in 2008: a huge sell-off.
Now I can already hear you say, "Hey, what about stocks?"
Yes, dear readers, stocks also follow a similar pattern, as shown by the price action of the German DAX index.
One last thought: Why is Mr. Paulson's biggest holding the SPDR Gold ETF? He doesn't own that many gold stocks, but still, he is "uberbullish about gold. If he really thinks gold will trade at $4,000, then why doesn't he load up on gold mining stocks?
Maybe he thinks gold and gold stocks will completely disconnect, with gold going through the roof, while gold stocks tank just like the general markets? That trend might have already been developing over the last couple of months, as gold is at an all-time high, while gold stocks are still trading at levels where gold was trading about $500 lower.
You can decide yourself whether you are a stock bull or a stock bear, a gold bull or a gold bear.
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Willem Weytjens, originally from Belgium, is currently living in Oslo, Norway. He has been an active investor for over 12 years, forecasting the latest financial crisis, rise in gold & silver prices etc. He recently founded his own company, Profitimes, enabling him to spend all of his time dealing with financial markets.