Buy, Sell or Hold: Buy the Dips in Gold

SPDR Gold Trust (NYSE: GLD) experienced a major pullback on Leap Day this week, dropping almost exactly 100 points on the day.

This happened while the European Central Bank (ECB) offered its second tranche of three-year Long Term Recapitalization Operations (LTRO).

The sell-off in gold on Wednesday is a related sign that liquidity is currently in demand.

But you only have to look at gold's big move up since the start of 2012 to know this stage of the move was unsustainable short-term.

It's why investors shouldn't be surprised by the pullback, and should use this latest move down to increase their long-term exposure to gold.

This dip is a buying event and nothing more.

The pullback in the price of gold also hit equities along with bonds and some other commodities.

Even so, it appears that the ECB has provided enough liquidity to fight off the near-term fears.

Once these funds begin to work their way through the system, I believe they will be bullish for commodity prices.

Over time, banks will eventually put that capital to work, with an eye toward generating a positive rate of return on it. One of those avenues will undoubtedly be gold.

Here's why, along with a bit of background.

I'm Still Bullish on Gold

The global economy is not easy to beat on a consistent basis. It's why professional money managers privately share economic research and theories.

I'm blessed with an inbox full of these items and speak with many of these same money managers on a regular basis.

One of them is a friend we'll call "Unsure."

When he isn't living in some exotic locale, he can be found in Brazil. Having spent a significant time in Europe and in the US, he is worldly to say the least.

"Unsure" is the definition of a globally aware investor and yet, in my opinion, he has a weakness: He hates the US dollar long-term.

In fact, we regularly have mocking sessions in private, as he vents about the latest lunacy infecting the global reserve currency.

"Unsure" also jokingly prides himself on being a horrible market timer, which means he probably has been burned trying to time certain markets recently.

So here's the reason for the backstory....

"Unsure" was pondering buying dollars and lowering his gold exposure – even though gold is normally one of his favorite investments.

So when he's looking to switch his bias, even only for the near-term, I pay attention.

However, I hope he doesn't take this story about advice on gold wrong. (I'm sure he'll read it and we can have another jovial chat.)

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