Philly Fed Upside Surprise May Stifle Risk Appetite

Commodity prices are on the upswing as markets revel in Fed stimulus expectations after two days of Congressional testimony from Ben Bernanke drove hopes that additional help may be on the way. S&P 500 stock index futures are pointing firmly higher ahead of the opening bell on Wall Street, hinting the growth-geared crude oil and copper prices are positioned to follow stocks higher while gold and silver capitalize on fading haven demand for the US dollar.

The chipper mood may prove fleeting however as July’s Philadelphia Fed gauge of US business confidence comes across the wires. An upside surprise along the lines of the Empire Manufacturing print earlier in the week may yield evidence of stabilization early in the second quarter, reminding investors that further Fed accommodation is far from certain and rekindling risk aversion to sink growth-linked assets and boost the greenback as debasement fears subside.

Comex E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.474 // +0.018 // +0.52%

Prices continue to move higher after taking out resistance at 3.445, the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion. The bulls now aim to challenge 3.535, with a break above that exposing 3.618. The 3.445 level has been recast as near-term support, with a break below that targeting the 23.6% Fib at 3.378.

WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $89.87 // +0.65 // +0.73%

Prices are probing above the 90.00 figure after taking out the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement at 88.40. The next key layer of resistance lines up at 91.84, the 50% Fib, with a break higher exposing the 61.8% retracement at 95.29. The 88.40 level has been recast as near-term support.