All eyes are on the second-quarter US Gross Domestic Product. Expectations call for output growth to slow to an annualized pace of 1.4% from 1.9% recorded in the three months through March. The outcome is likely to be interpreted in the context of Fed stimulus expectations ahead of next week’s FOMC policy meeting. This means a soft print may be counter-intuitively interpreted as supportive for risk appetite in that it is perceived as increasing the chance of further accommodation. Indeed, S&P 500 stock index futures are trading firmly higher ahead of the report. Such an outcome opens the door for growth-geared crude oil and copper prices to follow shares while gold and silver find renewed support in inflation-hedge demand amid fears of US dollar dilution.
Comex E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.354 // -0.026 // -0.77%
Prices are pushing above resistance in the 3.378-90 area marked by the July 10 daily close and the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion to challenge the 14.6% level at 3.445. A break above that targets 3.535. Trend line support comes in at 3.336, with a push below that targeting the 38.2% Fib at 3.269.
WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $89.39 // +0.42 // +0.47%
Prices are edging higher from support in the 87.65-88.32 area, marked by the July 3 closing high and the 14.6% Fibonacci expansion, to test the 90.00 figure. A break higher from here exposes the July 19 high at 93.21. Alternatively, a break lower exposes the 23.6% level at 85.37.
Prices are testing resistance in the 1,615.65-35.70 area after taking out falling trend line resistance set from late March, with a break higher initially exposing 1,671.49. The trend line, now squarely at the 1,600/oz figure, has been recast as near-term support.
Spot Silver (NY Close): $27.36 // +0.38 // +1.39%
Prices are testing above a falling trend line set from early March to challenge resistance at 27.68, with a break higher exposing the July 3 high at 28.44. Near-term support remains at 26.75, with a break below that exposing the major triple bottom at 26.05.
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