Sentiment-linked crude oil and copper prices are following shares lower in early European trade as investors cast an uneasy eye toward a meeting of euro-zone finance ministers on tap later today. Policymakers are set to tackle the thorny issue of Greek bailout funding. Athens has struggled to reach agreement with the so-called “troika” (EU, ECB, IMF) about the release of the latest tranche of bailout funding. Continued failure to secure a deal that restarts the near-term flow of rescue cash and deals with paying for the cost of extending the deadline for Greece to meet its budgetary objectives by two years is likely to fan the flames of sovereign risk anew.
Gold and silver are trading flat for the time being but confirmation of the adverse scenario here is likely to bring the precious under pressure as well as haven-seeking capital flows buoy the US dollar and undermine assets denominated in terms of the benchmark currency. US housing starts and building permits data headlines the economic calendar, with moderation expected in October compared with the prior month. This may compound the risk-off dynamic, chipping away at hopes for a stronger US recovery’s ability to countervail headwinds facing global growth from Europe and Asia.
Comex E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.528 // +0.076 // +2.20%
Prices reversed higher from support at a rising trend line set from early October 2011, taking out the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement at 3.505. The 38.2% level at 3.568 lines up as the next upside objective. The 3.505 level has been recast as support, with reversal back below that exposing the trend line (now at 3.406) anew.
WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $89.28 // +2.61 // +3.01%
Prices pushed above resistance at 87.70, the 38.2% Fibonacci expansion, exposing the 90.00 figure and the 23.6% level at 92.53. A further break above the latter level aims for a longer-term trend line resistance now at 95.75. The 87.70 level has been recast as support, with a reversal below that exposing the 50% barrier at 83.79.