Copper, Crude Oil May Fall on Risk Aversion

All eyes are on the third meeting of Eurozone finance ministers this month aimed at working out a deal on Greece that will open the door for disbursement of the latest tranche of aid of €31 billion. The sticking point now appears to be the €10 billion cost of extending Athens’ deficit-reduction deadline by two years. Possible options include reducing interest rates Greece will pay on bailout loans, raising the deficit target to 124% of GDP by 2020 (from the current 120% objective), asking the ECB to contribute funds its earned on Greek bond purchases, and/or arranging a debt buyback financed with rescue cash.

While Greece is a very small part of the euro area, it has been looked upon to set the precedent for how the single currency bloc deals with the debt crisis. Investors will swiftly translate a lack of progress that reboots fears of a disorderly endgame to the Greek ordeal into what a similar scenario would mean in countries like Spain, weighing on sentiment across financial markets. Such an outcome is likely to weigh on risk-geared crude oil and copper prices. Meanwhile, gold and silver may face de-facto selling pressure as haven demand buoys the US Dollar. S&P 500 futures are in negative territory, sending an ominous signal about what is to come as Wall Street comes online.

COMEX E-Mini Copper (NY Close): $3.528 // +0.032 // +0.92%

Prices are consolidating below resistance at 3.532, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion. Initial support lines up at 3.482, the 14.6% level, with a break below that aiming for rising trend line support at 3.412. Alternatively, push above 3.532 targets the 38.2% Fib at 3.611.


WTI Crude Oil (NY Close): $88.28 // +0.90 // +1.03%

Prices are consolidating below resistance at 89.48, the 23.6% Fibonacci expansion, after taking out falling trend line set from the Sept. 14 high (now at 84.95). A drop below that exposes the Nov. 7 low at 84.04. Alternatively, a push above resistance targets the 38.2% level at 92.88.


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