Momentum in Bullion 'Unlikely Until New Year'

Friday morning saw the gold price drop below $1700 an ounce again, while stock markets, commodities and the euro all fell ahead of the final US nonfarm payrolls release of 2012.

 According to several sources the consensus forecast among analysts ahead of the report was for 93,000 jobs added in November, with the official unemployment rate expected to hold steady at 7.9%.

"US payroll data will be the main number focus today but there's probably two reasons why we might expect less reaction than normal," says Standard Bank analyst Steve Barrow. 

"The first is that the markets are clearly fixated by the fiscal cliff and it is doubtful that any data is going to have a significant impact until the cliff is sorted. Secondly, economic growth this quarter will be written off due to the impact of [Hurricane] Sandy." 

"If the unemployment rate should turn out to be higher than anticipated, the US Federal Reserve may decide at its meeting next week to top up [its latest asset purchase program] 'QE3'," says today's commodities note from Commerzbank, though it too acknowledges that today's employment numbers "will be distorted as a result of Hurricane Sandy." 

"A weaker-than-expected number could have a [gold positive] impact on the Fed meeting," agrees Ole Hansen, head of commodity strategy at Saxo Bank. 

"But it could also help force the hands of US politicians [negotiating over the so-called fiscal cliff], as they can see that the economy is hurting from the lack of knowledge about where it stands on Jan. 1." 

Heading into the weekend, gold looked set for a 1.1% weekly loss by Friday lunchtime in London, the second successive weekly drop. 

Bullishness among gold traders has fallen to its lowest level in seven weeks, according to a survey by news agency Bloomberg, which found 14 of 31 analysts expect the gold price to rise next week, the lowest proportion since Oct. 19. 

"We will get momentum again, but I don't think it's going to come until after the first of the year," says Jeffrey Sica, president of SICA Wealth Management in New Jersey. 

"Hedge funds that have underperformed and need to raise liquidity for redemptions are likely to sell their winners." 

Silver meantime fell to $32.82 an ounce this morning, 1.9% down from where it started the week.The European Central Bank yesterday cut its economic growth forecasts for next year, while it also lowered its outlook for Eurozone inflation. 

ECB president Mario Draghi told a press conference that 2013 projections for euro-zone growth made by central banks staff range from a 0.9% contraction to growth of 0.3%. This is down from the range of minus 0.4% to 1.4% 2013 growth projected back in September. 

"Inflation rates are expected to decline further to below 2% next year," added Draghi. 

"Over the policy-relevant horizon, in an environment of weak economic activity in the euro area and well-anchored long-term inflation expectations, underlying price pressures should remain moderate." 

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