The dramatic 2-3 day take down in gold spot pricing action smells and looks like capitulation to us at The Market Trend Forecast. We have been calling this entire 19-20 month consolidation period as a Primary wave 4 correction pattern, though complicated for sure. It has had multiple false rallies and buy and sell signals the entire time. With that said, the pattern is set up a for final 5th wave decline, which we are seeing now at the beginning of April.
Traditionally, gold tends to meander or be weak in April anyways on a seasonal basis. This sets Gold up to rally in May into July with another soft patch, followed by a fall rally. However, our technical analysis is predicated on our Elliott Wave analysis, which says this entire 20 month correction is a “Double Three” correction pattern. Essentially its two ABC patterns with an “X” Wave rally in the middle to really confuse everyone.
The X wave took gold to $1,800 last fall before dumping all the bulls off and eventually working its way down to the $1,540s levels we see today. This last leg down is a 5 wave decline and you know you’re at the bottom of wave 5 when everyone throws in the towel, the gold stocks trade at multi year lows and relative valuation extremes. We also have insiders buying 7 to 1 over sellers according to Ink Research in the gold stock sector. Stocks are valued at $923 per ounce equivalent even though Gold is trading north of $1,500 per ounce still.
We say bring it on and are actively accumulating selected gold stocks with production profiles and growth metrics that are attractive.
See the Gold Elliott Wave analysis chart we sent to our paying subscribers a few days ago to forewarn of one more leg down. The next rally should be a doozy and have very few people on board. We would simply caution that a drop below $1,523 spot pricing could lead to a blast down to the $1,440-$1,460 areas, but it’s unlikely in our current views.