During silver (SLV) and gold's (GLD) terrific move in 2011, very few analysts warned that a correction could come to shakeout all the Johnny come lately's (momentum traders) who were pushing gold and silver to nosebleed levels. I got nervous as hell back in 2011, when the day traders and mass media started picking up the precious metals story and I warned of a correction.
In April of 2011 I was interviewed by CBS Marketwatch and was quoted saying, "I am very concerned that silver may be overheating as the herd tries to force their way into this trade." This drastic move higher was to me a warning sign that we may see a significant shakeout.
I wrote articles published all throughout the Internet at the end of 2010/2011 warning my readers to protect themselves from a shakeout or correction. See the article entitled, "Is a Healthy Correction Overdue In Gold and Silver?" These same analysts who told you to buy silver in April 2011 or to buy gold in September 2011, at record highs are the same ones telling you to short or sell it late June-early July at record lows.
Beware of the mainstream media as it uses the momentum guys to brainwash the masses to buy high and sell low, when in fact our job is to do the opposite, buy low and sell high. Do not let these myopic minds confuse you. I continue to teach the basic fundamental philosophy in investing, buy straw hats in winter when no one wants them and wait to sell them when the summer heat wave hits.
It is this simple and contrarian value philosophy that has proven to build great wealth over time. In the markets, the hardest thing to do is to move against parabolic moves on the upside or waterfall declines to the downside. These technical phenomenons are pictures of mass hysteria, which historically prove to be turning points in the market.
Panics are represented by exhaustion gaps lower, while parabolic moves are represented by price spikes. Do not forget the basic laws of nature such as reversions to the means when investing in the markets. What goes up eventually attracts the late coming, marginal, momentum trader who eventually gets destroyed. What goes down attract the savvy value investors.
Corrections or panics destroy the weak hands who bought near the top and value investors acquire the positions to eventually sell in the next up-move. This phenomenon may be occurring right now. The momentum trader may be chasing equities such as the S&P 500 and Nikkei to overbought levels. The time to buy equities was when the S&P 500 was at much lower levels back in October 2011. When no one was buying the S&P 500, that was when I signaled a major buy signal for equities.