Liquefied natural gas (LNG) to Europe isn't a get-rich-quick scenario for the impatient investor: It's a long, strategic play for the sophisticated investor who can handle no small amount of politics and geopolitics along the way. When it comes to Europe, Russia's strategy to divide and conquer has worked so far, but Gazprom is a fragile giant that will eventually feel the pressure of LNG.
Robert Bensh is an LNG and energy security expert who has over 13 years of experience with leading oil and gas companies in Ukraine. He has been involved in various roles in finance, capital markets, mergers and acquisitions and government for the past 25 years. Mr. Bensh is the Managing Director and partner with Pelicourt LLC, a private equity firm focused on energy and natural resources in Ukraine.
In an exclusive interview with Oilprice.com, Bensh tells us:
- Why the smart LNG play is a long-term one
- How LNG fits into the European energy picture
- Why LNG will eventually pressure Russia in Europe
- Why Gazprom is but a fragile giant - How Russia combines gas and political influence in Eastern Europe
- How the European Union is easy to divide and conquer
- Why the Ukraine crisis has brought attention to the South Stream pipeline
- Why Bulgaria is the new front line - How Lithuania succeeded in negotiating down Gazprom
- What Moscow's Crimea annexation really achieved
- Why it's game over for Gazprom prices when Turkey steps in
James Stafford: Where does LNG fit into the overall European energy picture?
Robert Bensh: A better question might be, "When does LNG fit into the European energy picture?" When the price is right, it fits into the picture across the European Union, with new import terminals under construction, plenty of transmission lines to deliver it to land-locked countries and the prospect of deliveries from rising energy hub Turkey. And while it may not be a reality at this very moment, it is the prospect of cheaper LNG and the pace of LNG infrastructure development that has Gazprom worried about maintaining its monopoly.
James Stafford: So from an investor's perspective, what do we need to know here?
Robert Bensh: Listen, the LNG economics are marginal. LNG is about long-term, steady supply. It's a low-margin, long-term supply of gas to Europe. This is not a play for impatient investors who are looking to get rich quickly. This is a play for investors with longer-term vision, patience and strategic capabilities on a regional level. Those are the people who are going to make money off of this and, along the way, help reshape the balance in Europe away from Russia.
James Stafford: Who are the buyers in this scenario?
Robert Bensh: The countries that primarily take LNG are the Eastern European countries that are paying the highest gas prices and feeling the most significant strategic energy crunch from Russia. They can purchase large amounts of LNG on five 10-year contracts.
James Stafford: And what will Gazprom's response to more LNG for Europe be? What are its options?
Robert Bensh: Gazprom will either see its supply reduced, or it will be forced to reduce prices to limit economic impact. But once we can start getting LNG through the Turkish-controlled Bosphorus Strait, it is game over for Gazprom in terms of pricing. You'll still have LNG coming into Europe simply because demand will always exceed supply with long-term contracts in place. That's when you'll start to see significant amounts of Canadian and American LNG entering the European and Asian markets, which will affect gas prices in Europe.
James Stafford: Has Russia's, or Gazprom's, energy strategy in Europe really been as sinisterly brilliant as is often suggested?
Robert Bensh: In many ways, yes; but it has its limitations. Financially, Russian gas monopoly Gazprom is a fragile giant.
Russia's European energy policy is to approach different EU states on an individual basis in order to discriminate with price and get the maximum price possible from each. Beyond that, Russia also attempts to lock in supply by consolidating control over strategic energy infrastructure throughout Europe, as well as Eurasia.
In 2002, for example, Russia attempted to buy major energy infrastructure holdings in the Baltic states of Lithuania and Latvia. When both countries refused to cede control, Moscow sharply cut oil deliveries to both states. The final piece of Moscow's strategy is to maintain control of energy corridors, thus denying Europe any alternative energy routes.
Russia gets away with this because its divide-and-conquer energy strategy is made easy by the fact that the European Union is anything but unified.