If commodities and gold are ready to reverse, then the first thing that has to happen is for the dollar to form a top.
I think that may have occurred on November 7th when the last employment report was released. Notice how the dollar formed a key reversal on that day—which was retested Friday and failed—forming a bearish engulfing candlestick.
Considering that the daily cycle is now on day 22 and late in the cycle timing band, the odds are good that the reversal Friday marked at least a daily cycle top in the dollar index. If that’s the case then the euro’s daily cycle should have bottomed. Looking at the euro chart it does appear that the euro bottomed on November 7.
Now the question is are we looking at just a minor daily cycle rally to be followed soon by another lower low, or is the intermediate trend about to reverse?