Everybody's working on the weekend, everybody in finance, maybe Greece goes off the deep end. Will the EU give Greece a second chance? They are far apart, they better start from the start. If Greece wants in the show. They better let it go!
Everybody will be working on the weekend as European finance ministers will work over the weekend to try to convince Greece that they have more to lose in the event of a Greek default. A Greek bankruptcy could be in the offing if these talks fail. Those fears are holding back crude oil despite the fact that data out Eurozone would continue to signal an economic recovery and hence more oil demand. Bloomberg News reported that quantitaive easing in Europe helped drive the Eurozone's private sector lending to the highest level in more than three years in May. The European Central Bank reported that private sector lending rose 0.5% on the year last month. The Increase was in large part was driven by a 0.9% increase in lending to households, particularly for home purchases, which according to Dow Jones offset a slight decline in business lending.
Oil traders are also waiting to see if there is any chance that they can hammer out a deal with Iran and lift oil sanctions. Already the United States is saying that talks will "slip past" the deadline and so it will be hard to close a deal this weekend in Vienna.
In fact, the ayatollah of Iran is already backing off promises made in the framework of the deal when it comes to weapons inspectors making it very difficult to see a scenario that a deal will get done anytime soon. Bloomberg reports, "As Secretary of State John Kerry heads to Vienna Friday seeking to complete an agreement restricting Iran's nuclear activities, two senior Obama administration officials rejected suggestions that the administration is backtracking on its demands in its eagerness for a deal."
The U.S. is standing firm in insisting that Iran must grant access and transparency so that United Nations inspectors can verify that its nuclear program is solely for peaceful purposes, according to the officials, who are close to the negotiations and spoke on condition of anonymity.
Other than Iran or Greek news the market will look at oil rig counts. Any drop in oil rigs will be supportive to the market.
With global demand maybe reaching 95 million barrels a day this year, the burden of proof will stay with the bear camp. While supplies are ample currently if demand continues to rise, that so called glut of oil may evaporate rather quickly. Still while waiting out the Greece and Iran outcomes oil is stuck in a range. Oil traded near $60 a barrel in New York as a decline in U.S. crude inventories countered near-record production levels, depressing price volatility to the lowest in more than seven months.
Gas prices are steady despite what could be a record holiday driving weekend. The Energy Information Administration reports that increased refinery runs—based on increases in both capacity and utilization—have helped accommodate increases in U.S. crude oil production. The United States' capacity to refine crude oil into petroleum products—measured as operable atmospheric crude distillation unit (CDU) capacity—increased by 0.2% in 2014, reaching 18.0 million barrels per calendar day (b/d), according to EIA's recently released annual Refinery Capacity Report.
Bloomberg reports that Americans will take to the roads in record numbers over the July 4 Independence Day holiday as the improving job market and lower fuel prices spur more people to splurge on getaways, a forecast by AAA shows.
About 35.5 million people will drive 50 miles or more from home during the five days ending July 5, up from 35.3 million last year and the most since at least 2000, the Heathrow, Florida-based motoring club said by e-mail on Thursday. A total of 41.9 million Americans will travel using all modes of transportation, the most since 2007.
Too much rain! Flooded fields have caused a sharp rise in grain prices driving up ethanol as well. Cattle prices fell as feed cost rise and demand slips into the holiday weekend.