On the equity front most global equity markets have rallied cautiously on the latest Greek news. The EMI Global Equity Index increased by 0.50 percent over the last twenty four hours with the year to date gain widening to 7.3%. Equities are still lower on the week and have a considerable amount of ground to cover since the Greek sell-off began. Global equities have been a negative price driver for the oil complex for the last week or so but may be changing direction depending on the final outcome of the Greek negotiations.
The API released their data late Tuesday afternoon showing a surprise build in crude oil and builds in both gasoline and distillate fuel setting a bearish overtone heading into the EIA inventory report scheduled for release today at 10:30 am. Finally the EIA natural gas inventory report will be released on its regular schedule on Thursday at 10:30 AM EST.
My projections for this week’s inventory report are summarized in the following table. I am expecting a draw in crude oil and builds in refined products. I am expecting crude oil stocks to decrease by about 2.3 million barrels with total inventories still off of their record high levels. If the actual numbers are in sync with my projections the year over year comparison for crude oil will now show a surplus of 75.8 million barrels while the overhang versus the five year average for the same week will come in around 85.9 million barrels.