Let’s imagine this coming week’s headlines together, knowing that my list of markets has entered and may exit a statistically-significant narrow range in forceful unison as we near Friday’s close: “Wild Market Swings Caused by X”; “Instability in X region or Y asset class,” and “Volatility Returns.”
The variables can be filled in later because the math indicates it will happen regardless of whatever event, individual, or process will set off these wide ranges.
Addressing last week’s predictions, I correctly identified that Crude oil (within 2%), the S&P 500 (within 1.9%), and soybeans (within 1.7%) would break narrow-ranges in advance by mathematic means. Today, they all are narrow-range breakers. Last week my directional trade ideas were to short the euro, yen and Aussie dollars as well as Gold and the S&P (to 2720) via short call spreads. All would’ve won. My ranges were good last week, but I specialize/thrive in chop/reversal ranges. This coming week is the condition I’m bad at trading/predicting, and a strangle/straddle is all I know how to do with it. Thus, I’m preparing this report early to give readers time to research my work.
Most symbols I track now present wide-range blowout setups. Most symbols I track now present wide-range blowout setups. The only trade ideas I have are to go outright long positions in S&P 500, yen, Aussie, British pound and bitcoin, and wait to short crude oil, the euro and soybeans. Consider directional defined-risk option spreads or long strangles.
Technical curiosities on charts this week include Bitcoin presenting a doji on the 20-day simple moving average, it is looking bouncy on weekly camarilla pivots.
Next week’s (Feb. 26 through March 2) predicted ranges
High: 2795 2775/Low: 2670-2650
High: 95450-94240/Low: 9258-9225
High: 12548-12420/Low: 12129-12168
High: $1,365-$1,345/Low: $1,316-$1,302
High: $65.29-$64.65 Low: $62.02-$60.79
High: 1418-1412/Low: 1391-1378
High: 7980-7920/Low: 7740-7672
High: $10.68-$10.49/Low: $10.14-$9.99
High: $11,950-$10,695/Low: $8,875-$8,317
Past Week’s (Ending Feb. 23) Projected & actual ranges
Highs 2877-2797/Lows 2661-2622 Actual 2747-2682
Highs 9565-9440/Low 9314-9270 Actual 9440-9281
Highs 12636-12500/Low: 12349-12283 Actual 1245-1227
High: $1,380-$1,367/Low $1,341-$1,333 Actual $1,354-$1,322
High $64.68-$62.91/Low $59.80-$57.95 Actual $63.73-$60.75
High 1430-1418/Lows 1390-1380 Actual 1406-1386
High 8040-7995/Low 7867-7820 Actual 7934-7790
Highs $10.42-$10.34/Low $10.07-$9.96 Actual $10.39-$10.19
Highs $11,546- $10,695/Low $8,875-$8,317 Actual 11800-9530