SHANGHAI (Interfax-China) -- China's arable land resources declined by 610,100 mu (40,673 hectares), or 0.03%, to 1.83 billion mu (121.73 million hectares) in 2007, according to statistics released by the Ministry of Land and Resources (MLR) yesterday.
Last year, 3.55 million mu (236,500 hectares) of arable land was lost to urbanization, "grain for green" conservation projects that return steep cropland to forests, and natural disasters. However, restoration projects and new land development added 2.94 million mu (195,800 hectares) of arable land.
As a result, China’s total arable land has moved closer to the minimum 1.8 billion mu (120 million hectares) level set by the central government. The MLR warned that defending the 1.8 billion mu level will be a difficult task, as the country has little spare land that could be used to expand arable land acreage.
Below is a table specifying China’s arable land resources from 2001-2007.
Commentary
This is the second time in as many days that officials have felt the need to stress 'difficulties' in either maintaining land resources or achieving grain targets. This is a significant and fundamental change in attitude that hitherto espoused confidence that grain security was guaranteed.
Why this sudden change in stance? It is simply an expression of the reality that China will indeed face difficulties. Recognition of this fact can no longer be hidden behind exuberant rhetoric. The decline in farmland acreage is one of the main reasons for the limited growth of agricultural output. In 1996, China boasted 130.08 million hectares of farmland, but by 2006, farmland had declined by 6.37% to 121.8 million hectares.
Desertification claimed 1,200 square miles of land in 2007, or 120,000 hectares. This is a major improvement from losses in the 1990’s which reached 10,000 square miles per annum. Nevertheless; if the current situation continues, China will face an arable land shortage that could reach 6.67 million hectares by 2020.
Moreover, the agricultural sector has started to suffer from labour shortages due to urbanization and the migration of the rural population to cities in search of work. A full 18 million people migrate to the cities every year. An additional 23 million 'floating' migrants also seek work in the cities annually. China's agricultural sector relies on out-dated technology and is labour intensive. Labour shortages and rising labour costs will have a direct impact on grain output and prices.
As arable land continues to decline, the growth of China's population could surpass current expectations.
Although Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao reiterated China's commitment to the one-child policy as a means to control population growth in early March during the National People's Congress, arguments for a relaxation of the one child policy do have merit.
Life expectancy has increased to an average of 79 years for men and 81 years for women, and the additional healthcare costs an aging population will impose on the government; responsibilities hitherto borne by the family unit. The shrinking labour force is another area of concern, particularly in the rural districts as workers migrate in ever increasing numbers.
Furthermore; in an increasingly affluent society, families may be willing to suffer the financial penalties of having additional children.
Given this scenario, it would be reasonable to argue that population growth may accelerate moderately. If the rate of growth increases to just 0.7%, still less than half the rate seen in the 1990’s, China’s population would reach 1.5 billion 25 to 30 years ahead of official forecasts.
Now consider the additional pressures on supply and price, given a 5% reduction in land and another 180 million mouths to feed.
© Interfax-China 2008. For further information regarding Interfax China Commodities Daily Reports, contact David Harman at david.harman@interfax-news.com. Interfax also publishes a comprehensive China Grains & Soft Special Report in March 2008, contact David Harman for details.
