The deadline has passed. President Donald Trump fired the trade war shot heard around the world as he suggests the United States is mad as heck and isn’t going to take the record $375 billion trade deficit with China in 2017 anymore. Around $34 billion in tariffs went into effect at midnight with China calling it the start of the largest trade war in history and retaliating by adding $34 billion dollars of its own tariffs.
Hail to the tweet! President Donald Trump is calling out OPEC and telling them now is the time to lower prices. The tweet this time had less of an oil price impact from previous tweets, as many are starting to realize OPEC can’t do much. The President tweeted that “The OPEC Monopoly must remember that gas prices are up & they are doing little to help. If anything, they are driving prices higher as the United States defends many of their members for very little $’s. This must be a two-way street. REDUCE PRICING NOW!”
Oh, say can you tweet, by the dawn’s early light? The global oil markets are still rolling after President Donald Trump tweeted that maybe the Saudis had agreed to increase output by as much as two million barrels to help replace Iranian supply that the Trump Administration wants to see at zero by early November.
So, President Trump is using his leverage with the Saudis saying you must replace Iranian oil because we have got your back against your nemesis. The Saudis, of course, must look like any move they make is within the boundaries OPEC and Russia has set. Iran Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh said any production increase above limits agreed to by OPEC would “breach” the deal, according to a letter he sent to OPEC President Suhail Al Mazrouei and distributed by the Iran Oil Ministry’s news service Shana. OPEC should reject the U.S. call for a production increase which is “politically motivated against Iran,” he said, as reported by Bloomberg.
With the Trump Administration working toward zero Iranian exports by November, Libyan oil supplies at risk due to clashes with militias, and crashing supply from Venezuela, reports of tightening U.S. supply is keeping oil on edge. Crude oil price continued its drive, hitting $74 a barrel for the first time since that fateful OPEC meeting in November 2014.
The global oil market supercycle that we predicted would happen a few years ago is becoming increasingly clear to the crude oil market. It is hard to ignore what is happening when the data in the United States and around the globe is seeing the seeds of a bull market in energy that will last for years.