http://admin.futuresmag.com/admin/structure/nodequeueHedge funds are not listening to crazy bearish crude oil price predictions like Goldman's $20 a barrel call and instead are amassing its biggest net long position since last April. Oil fund managers are not betting on $20 a barrel oil this week because they increased their net-long position by 16,855 contracts to 132,857 futures and options in the week ending Sept. 8, according to the CFTC commitment of traders report.
Today, the EIA will release their monthly Short Term Energy Outlook Report (STEO). The market will be very focused on the EIA’s new projection for U.S. crude production now that they are employing a new survey method for crude production.
The IEA indicated in its report that the long-awaited rebalancing of the global oil market has begun but is likely to last through 2016 as the supply overhang is expected to persist through 2016. Overall it was a supportive report but one that is still projecting supply to outstrip demand through 2016.
Crude oil prices are modestly higher for the second day in a row after a mildly bullish API oil inventory report release late yesterday. The gains in oil are primarily driven by short covering after a significant decline in prices that began in mid-June.
Crude prices are drifting lower ahead of this morning’s Energy Information Administration (EIA) oil inventory report after the API reported a modest draw in crude, but a significant build in distillate fuel.
Yesterday’s expiration of the August Nymex WTI contract was mostly uneventful with the market trading in a relatively tight trading range. So far this morning the market is on the defensive after the API reporting a surprise build in total U.S. crude oil stocks.