There was little excitement in the oil markets during Tuesday’s trading session; with investors on guard as OPEC and Non-OPEC members discussed compliance levels on their output cut agreement, in Abu Dhabi.
Crude oil prices pulled back from the big psychological resistance of $50 per barrel as the overbought market was met with reports of rising OPEC oil production and a surprise increase in U.S. crude oil supply as reported by the American Petroleum Institute..
Oil prices surged even before the American Petroleum Report (API) reported another massive crude oil crude withdrawal. The 10.23-million-barrel draw, if confirmed by the Energy Information Administration, it means that U.S. oil supply is down almost 55 million barrels since the end of March, even as the Strategic Petroleum Resave added over 13 million of barrels of oil into the marketplace. The API brings the total inventory for crude oil in 2017 to a net draw of 7.534 million barrels, the first net draw for 2017 since January according to Oilprice. So we see that OPEC and non-OPEC cuts do matter. As I told Marketwatch, the API reported crude supply draw erases the myth that shale can offset OPEC and non-OPEC cuts barrel for barrel.
While the oil markets are attempting to maintain gains following the latest OPEC meeting, I remain unconvinced whether the outcome to the gathering actually means anything for the price of oil in the long run.
A sense of caution seems to be the theme for the financial markets as trading gets underway for the week, with investors braced and preparing for an incredibly busy week packed with both crucial economic reports and major risk events.
For oil and the markets, Russia is all the rage. There is the big OPEC/non-OPEC pow-wow in Russia and reports that Special Prosecutor Robert Mueller is opening an investigation into President Donald Trump's business transactions with Russia one day after the President said that that would be a red-line for him.
Crude oil prices are trying to recover on a weak dollar after selling off yesterday on the August oil future contract expiration. Also on a prediction by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) that US oil production would rise by 113,000 barrels a day to 5.585 million barrels a day in August from July, even as they overestimated Junes production by a wide margin.
Crude oil prices have been creeping higher four days in a row as OPEC plans an “emergency technical meeting” July 24. The move is tentative as the market is still buying into the invincibility of shale oil production and this myth that the global oil market is not balancing. The International Energy Agency tried to feed into that myth by suggesting that OPEC compliance is slipping, offsetting what is a surge in global oil demand.