The day after crude oil prices rose almost 5% the dogma of the dollar versus oil inverse relationship has come to a screeching halt ahead of the most exciting FOMC meetings in a decade. As the Fed moves closer to raising interest rates and getting closer to a normalization of interest rate policy the correlation between the dollar and oil is breaking down.
U.S. crude oil production may be falling faster than many had thought and we are seeing signs of that in Cushing, Okla. Cushing is the Nymex delivery point and a storage facility that if you listened to the Ultra Bears was supposed to be overflowing with oil. Instead the opposite is happening as supply there have fallen five out of the last seven weeks and is slated to fall once again.
Crude oil prices were under pressure after Mario Draghi magic seemed too eased off. Oh, sure, after Mario Draghi said he was disappointed with growth and the lack of inflation, oil got a bounce. Yet, when Asian and European stocks gave up the gains, oil prices falter until a headline came out about those Chinese Military ships that are moving off of the coast of Alaska.
Crude oil prices are proving to be resilient after wiping out a 2% loss to close over 2% higher. Not even a reported 4.7 million increase in crude supply and reports that President Obama has the votes to overcome a veto on his deal to lift sanction on Iran was not enough to keep this market down.
Crude oil posted its biggest 3-day rally since 1990 and put futures back in bull market territory based on a report that U.S. oil production may be falling faster than previously reported, and OPEC is willing to talk with non-Opec oil producers to try to establish a "fair price for oil."
Another 6.2% drop in the Shanghai composite helped drive oil and industrial metals to a six-year low, and only seemed to slow after China pumped 120 billion yuan worth of seven-day reverse repurchase agreements, or reverse repos, which are a short-term loans to commercial lenders in the money market.