Seasonally, the months of November, December and January are positive months for gold and October is seasonally a weak month for gold. November is gold’s strongest month in the last ten years and it has returned 4.93% on average since 2003. Since 1975, gold has returned nearly 1.5% on average in November.
The gold and silver miners have been hammered down to historic 1999 lows, while the U.S. banks and U.S. dollar reach new heights. This is a great opportunity for value investors to enter the mining sector at possibly the ground floor of a commodity supercycle.
Gold briefly popped above the 200 day moving average at $1,643/oz. this morning and remains near the 3½ month high set in the prior session. A break above the 200 day moving average will be bullish technically.
Gold bulls have plenty of room to graze in the stockyard these days as the investing herd migrated to other assets during the market’s steep climb in 2012. For the fourth time in the past year, gold bears outnumbered the bulls in Bloomberg’s weekly Gold Bull/Bear Sentiment Survey.