Crude oil closed back above $70 a barrel as storms, both real and politically, started to develop. Prices were on the rise after U.S. oil supply fell 2.6 million barrels this week, which raised even more concerns about the market’s ability to replace plunging Venezuelan oil production and Iranian exports that reportedly already are facing falling oil supply. Now, you get Mother Nature involved with more storm activity brewing out in the Atlantic, and you have a very bullish outlook.
Crude oil is being driven by more plotlines than an afternoon soap opera. With upcoming sanctions on Iran, the Fed on pace for gradual interest rate increases, strikes in the North Sea and a big drop in the U.S. oil rig count (which fell by 9 rigs, the biggest drop since May of 201), there is enough drama for both the bulls and the bears.
The dog days of August that have set in on the moves in the commodities have been exaggerated. While crude oil holds the 200-day moving average, after a major seasonal sell-off, the concerns about a serious demand slowdown are most likely overblown. Turkey, of course, is a major oil producer and Consumer. NOT! The fears of contagion, steaming from the stepped upped pressure from the Trump Administration, has been overdone. We are in the dog days, and oil bears have begun licking their chops, mistaking seasonal weakness for a major bear turn in the market.
After a rough start to the week, Asian stocks seem to have found some support as the Turkish Lira steadied below 7 per dollar. Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.8% with all sectors in green territory as the Yen gave up some of yesterday’s gains. Australia’s ASX 200 and the Korean KOSPI also edged higher but gains were limited.
Even in long-term bull markets, you are going to have a day like Wednesday. Crude oil and products crashed down to major support as it was hit with a confluence of headlines and bearish weekly Energy Information Administration data. Fears of the impact of sanctions on China, Iran, Russia and Turkey did not help and another big drop in U.S. gasoline demand has some worried that U.S. consumers were showing resistance to higher pump prices.
Crude oil prices are on the rise as President Donald Trump warns the world that anyone trading with Iran will not be trading with the United States. That pronouncement is directed at the European Union, which issued a statement Monday in Brussels saying, "We deeply regret the re-imposition of sanctions by the U.S., due to the latter's withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA).
The U.S. petroleum markets were just trying to adjust to a surprise increase in U.S. crude supply, when The Wall Street Journal reported that the Trump Administration is considering more than doubling proposed tariffs on a further $200 billion worth of Chinese goods to 25%, up from an original 10% tariff that was put in place before.
Crude oil prices are back under pressure as there are reports that the United States is looking to more than double tariffs on China, as well as a shockingly bearish weekly inventory report from the American Petroleum Institute (API). Out of nowhere, the API reported a 5.590 million barrel build, confounding experts and expectations as well as a big 2.890-million-barrel increase in distillate supply. Gasoline did fall by 791,00 barrels but with trade war fears keeping us on edge, today's Energy Information Administration (EIA) supply report will be more important than today's Fed announcement.
Crude oil prices are on a wild ride. Oil prices rallied as hot rhetoric between the United States and Iran heated up. They sold off on data from Genscape that showed an 83,106 barrel increase in supply in Cushing, Okla., since Tuesday, and after reports of the return of some Libyan oil. Reports show that Waha oil production in Libya rose to 130,000 barrels a day from 100,000 barrels a day last week, as loading resumed at Es Sider port, according to Bloomberg.
Crude prices got whacked on oil supply, real and imagined. Talk of futures strategic petroleum reserve releases along with signs of real increases of production in some OPEC countries sent oil into the basement. Weak economic data out of China and some warnings about trade wars by the International Monetary Fund did not help and it overshadowed the reality that U.S. oil supplies will probably fall dramatically again this week.