Geopolitics has taken over the oil market, driving oil prices up to three-year highs. The inventory surplus has vanished, and more outages could push oil prices up even higher. Yet, there are some signs that demand is starting to take a hit as oil closes in on $80 per barrel.
Last Christmas, you said shale would jumpstart, but very soon after, it all fell apart, this year you say no more tears, you say that shale will be special. Last Christmas you said production would rise it did but fell far short of your prize. This year, you say have no fear, we will hit a new high threshold.
Oil prices are responding positively to an extension of the current OPEC/Non-OPEC production deal, especially because Nigeria and Libya agreed to cap production, but a monthly report by the Energy Information Administration (EIA) on U.S. production rising over 3% to 9.48 million barrels a day seemed to put a bit of a wet blanket on the markets' enthusiasm. Not to mention a million barrels of hedged shale oil output.
While OPEC and The Energy Information Administration raising its outlook for demand and lowers its projection for global Non-OPEC production, The International Energy Agency (IEA) releases a report that shows that tries to talk down demand next year admit they underestimated demand this year.